Jon88keys

Creepy

2009-09-24T09:22:00.000-07:00

I DON'T CARE what party you belong to or who you voted for...this should put up some red flags.

The End of the American Century

2009-09-22T05:33:00.000-07:00

BTW the market for now is behaving very bullishly. But I feel as though we need to be mindful of the increasing disconnect between Wall Street and Main Street.

Also feel the irony that "RT" is Russia Today. Yes, my comrades, Russia is doing better reporting on this crisis than the US of A. Shameful.

Dollar Danger

2009-08-27T14:08:00.000-07:00

I don't like talking about the markets anymore.

There are all sorts of wonderful commentators on the markets if that's what you're into, and I'm trying to focus on more creative pursuits at the moment.

But that doesn't mean I'm not watching the markets, just that I'm very bored talking about it.

I think folks that are paid in US Dollars need to be careful. I'm talking about retired folks on fixed incomes paid in US dollars. The US government has every intention of screwing you royally, and I feel that it's my duty to put up the warning flag for friends and family.

To wit: it is the intention of the Federal Reserve of my country to inflate commodities such as gold, oil, copper etc. etc. as much as possible i.e. reduce the value of the US Dollar as much as possible.

I'm not sure how much success they will have ultimately, but I do think they will push us towards another dollar crisis in the near future, perhaps even in the next few months.

I HOPE THAT I'M WRONG ABOUT THIS.

But Gold and the EUR/USD are looking very strong right now, and if they break out I think they could make quite a run before the whole thing collapses again.

So my advice in the shorter term is: continue to hold/buy gold, and hold Euros, sell dollars....UNTIL THIS UPTREND BREAKS...but who knows how long that will be WITH THE GOVERNMENT SANCTIONED MONEY COUNTERFEITERS HARD AT WORK.

And yes, the caps mean that I'm pissed about it. :)

The Deal with Geniuses

2009-07-19T10:51:00.000-07:00

One of the the unfortunate bits about being a musician is the sobering reality that there are lots of folks that are talented and beautiful people that will probably never get enough recognition/money/fame for their contributions to the craft. But there it is; we have the famous musicians that on which our increasingly myopic media focuses attention upon, with the trappings of money and fame (I won't bother naming names, because I'm sure you could think of dozens of examples right now) thrown in.

But also out there are the composers, conductors and performers that will never get that national radio play in any big way, but they are talented and dedicated to their craft. If there was justice, these folks would be rich and famous and recognized to the level of their ability, but since the broader public may not be in sync/understand their work (i.e. there is a level of technical and emotional complexity going on) they just continue to operate as regionally recognized talents and left at that, for better or worse.

Anyway here's a video made by some friends of mine that really deserve recognition.

Joe LoCascio is a friend and mentor of mine that I got to know when I lived in Houston. I would call his playing/compositional style rather a mix of Bill Evans and Chick Corea, although these metaphors are really my crude ways of identifying a sound and style that is really unique. I remember a lesson with him in which we spent most of the hour talking about Berg Op. 1 and when I showed his some of my tunes, he always found a way to push me into notes and rhythms that never even crossed my mind, and for this I am forever grateful.

I got to know Richard Cholakian when he, myself, and Dave Klingensmith used to run a jam session at Munchies in Houston. I had to play this ramshackle piano, but I learned a bunch. Rich was this great and gentle soul who had the world's crappiest drum kit (used and abused!) that we used to kid him about. Anyway this was my first organized exposure to jazz playing, and I'm grateful to Rich et al for being there for me. In this video he looks older and more clean than I remember him (although I think I still recognize parts of the kit!)

Last time I play with Tom Helton was at the Magnolia in downtown Houston, which was actually the last time I played with Mike Lefabvre (just a few months before he died, although I had no idea at the time). It was a fun gig that I remember fondly. I also played with him sporadically at joints like Sullivan's before I left town in '99

Anyway, I hope these guys get to be rich and famous. They deserve it.

Bear hunting

2009-07-15T12:50:00.001-07:00

Here's a daily chart of SPY. (I'm not home right now, so I can't Jing-ize any charts at this moment, but I think we can get a general sense of meaning just as well this way)

A couple of points I'd like to quickly note:

1. Volume has been abysmal lately; but today's rally was extra super duper abysmal. I would venture that today's rally was largely short covering. The bears are throwing in the towel, but I really don't sense a lot of institutional bullishness, either. Until some volume kicks in on one side or the other, I'd look cynically at any move the market makes.

2. This current action strikes me as, well, oddly logical. Everybody and their dog has been looking at the head and shoulders formation thinking "this is it". Then we got a lopsided trade which was easy to exploit on the flimsiest type of good news. That is why I bailed on TWM and QID two days ago, and got stopped out of DUG at yesterday's open: this was EASY TO SEE if one is flexible and/or cynical as I am.

3. I'm certain that the Cramers of the world are going to use these low volume breakouts as an excuse to signal "all clear", thereby encouraging more meat to the slaughter house that is Wall Street. Intel in particular has a long history of sandbagging their earnings (as well as most other large cap tech companies, but Intel has been particularily egregious about it over the last ten years or so), causing dramatic gapping breakouts that suck people in before collapsing again. I expect this to be about the same.

So again, if anybody out there is listening to me a bit, I am saying "BE CAREFUL OUT THERE" These people on the TV WANT YOU TO PUT YOUR MONEY BACK INTO THIS MARKET.

Thus endith the sermon.

XLF setup

2009-07-13T09:08:00.000-07:00

I think XLF will once again be under significant pressure in the coming weeks.

Deja Vu

2009-07-13T07:49:00.000-07:00

These charts are courtesy of Ron Coby (ron@cobylamson.com) (with my Jing annotations for clarity):

PS these charts are HUGE, so if you want to see them you need to double click on them; if I shrunk them it would be just about impossible to make anything out, so click please!

And here's Ron:

"
Look at the weekly charts of the 1929-31 timeframe compared to 2008-09. The
main difference is that 29-31 had its crash to reach the 200 wk moving
average and we had our crash after we lost touch with the 200 wk average and
headed south. If the next year continues as
31-32 went, our projected bottom will be 2373,which coincidentaly is where
the 1990 Dow bear hit and held its 200 wk average. Point 6 on the charts is
simply this week. In 1931 the market was down 64% while today we are down
only 43% due to our post crash short covering rally.
The first week of March those numbers were 29-31 down 53.5% while
2008-09 was down 54%. Until then these two bear markets were nearly
identical in length and severity. Thought you might find this interesting.
The question is, of course, what takes place in the next year? I think the
comparrison of these two charts pretty well makes the case that we are 2/3
of the way through this bear market and much further into depression than
most believe us to be.

On both charts the numbers mark these moments:

1. Market high
2. First leg down to 200 wk moving average
3. Rally back to 50 wk Moving Average
4. Close below 200 wk Moving Average.
5. The final drop away from the 200 wk Moving Average
6. 44 weeks after #5....Today"

The Big Wilt

2009-06-17T08:10:00.000-07:00

I realize that the larger trends of the major averages are still positive AND I realize that the volume of this most recent distrubution of the major averages is very, very light.

However, in spite of all this, I think if long time support levels are breached, volume could become heavier and the rally of March '09 will be officially toast.

But that is premature. Support has to be breached first.

Finally

2009-06-15T07:36:00.000-07:00

some market action worth talking about!

This morning we're (aka "I") seeing more cracks in the reflation trade.

Commodity stocks have been leading this market for weeks now. If they top, the market has officially topped, maybe for the whole Summer.

Transports are getting CRUSHED today

I also noticed SRS this morning. I'm looking at the 19.54 pivot to start accumulating.

Alexandra's Trip

2009-06-10T13:22:00.000-07:00

The Car of the Future

2009-06-05T15:32:00.001-07:00

Only dopes buy treasuries

2009-06-05T07:04:00.000-07:00

On or about March 2o, I laid out what I thought was a satisfying trade idea (Let's Break the Fed!).

I mean satisfying on many levels: a chance to make a bit of money, and also a chance to make my voice heard via poking the Fed where it hurts.

And it's going great:

And the daily chart is even more dramatic:

The Dollar Strikes Back!

2009-06-05T06:37:00.000-07:00

Now what could this mean? (This is the speculative part):

First of all make no mistake: the Federal Reserve has been printing money with abandon with the express purpose of causing as much inflation as possible, despite the dismal jobs picture and slowing demand across most sectors of the economy.

This multi-month equity rally is also, IMHO, about inflating equity values as well.

If the dollar has a strong bounce from these levels, this would be a deflationary repudiation of Fed policy, and I believe this would have extremely negative implications for the entire market in the coming weeks. Metaphorically, it's hard to pump up a balloon that's full of holes!

The trend is the trend is the trend

2009-05-29T04:32:00.000-07:00

That is the sermon for today.

Commodities have been the strongest uptrend lately (oil, metals, whatnot) and so when a buy signal comes up, say a simple 50/20 crossover on the hourly bars, that quite simply will tell the story.

Here's GLD...uptrend. So either buy more on dips or wait it out.

And USO (oil)...another firm uptrend...ditto, trading wise.

On the other hand , the treasury debacle that I have been hinting about for a while has come into full relief... big time downtrend in place...rates headed UP

EUR/USD UPTREND...still in place (Dammit, as I sit here in Europe as everything gets more expensive for me)...so either buy or wait

But the SPY is still tracing out a whippy consolodation...is this the top???

Not sure yet, but volume is still dismal, so if the name of the game is not losing money, I'm just going to sit on my hands until we get some clarity in the major average ETF's

Ta Ta for now. It is a cloudy day in the mountains and I'm going to practice for a while.

Get Rich Cheating

2009-05-26T07:11:00.001-07:00

EDIT:

Markets are rallying strongly today on more weak-ass volume. I don't believe the move, and in my opinion the real test is coming.

Dollar Dilemma

2009-05-20T23:29:00.000-07:00

Two main questions on my mind:

Is the US dollar bottoming, or it is going to crash? I tend to think a double bottom is forming, but we will see:

And here's UUP, which tells the same tail:

Other question: when is this low volume equity/commodity rally going to break? My guess is after Memorial day.

OK time for exercise and maybe a walk mit camera.

Go Ron Go!

2009-05-20T13:49:00.001-07:00

The Light at the End of the Tunnel

2009-05-13T05:52:00.000-07:00

is a train.

Thank God...I was getting so bored.

Reason I believe my trading technique is improving: I did next to nothing for about 2 months. In the past I have tended to over trade in choppy periods and lose money...NO MORE! Be disciplined! Be patient!

And now for just some silly stuff. I love cats and pianos, so here you go:

He's Sayin' What I'm Thinkin'

2009-05-12T07:02:00.000-07:00

Obama's Stock Market Mini-Bubble

Land of Pure Imagination

2009-05-07T03:46:00.001-07:00

Theme for the Week (hit play):

I swear this rally that has been spinning upwards for the better part of a month feels to me like some wacky manipulated fantasy world that is getting harder and harder to take for hard bitten chart watchers such as myself. It's like the averages are being run by a small band of banditos while the rest of us just sit on our hands waiting for the fever to subside.

Now of course the pure technical trader part of me realizes this is a significant rally (that I, of course, missed) and if I'm a bear I've got a target on my head: I will be shown the light by hook or by crook.

But it feels rigged. Bad news is good news, and horrible news "could have been worse".

This morning's action with the EUR/USD cross is case in point. Things were breaking down very nicely overnight until someone/something/some institution decided that the US dollar was getting too strong and bought lots of Euros.

US futures were breaking down, too, until "something" happened and now everything is all better.

And don't get me started on oil. Demand at multi year lows?? Storage at multi year highs? No problem!

What's laughable in all this is we've witnessed a historic expansion of our money supply, while academic boneheads/aka state apologists like Benjamin Bernanke say blather like "inflation is contained" while oil shoots up like a rocket and the US dollar shudders like a doughboy trapped in a foxhole. These people may or may not be intelligent, but they are also idiots. They are part and parcel of the government's plan to inflate commodities, inflate the equity markets, and kill the Dollar...and you know, after several trillion of funny money gets dumped into the system, it seems to be working...FOR NOW! But I think it's morally wrong to "stimulate" an overpriced market through monetary and government expansion, because it hurts savings, hurts seniors, and moreover dooms our children to a lower standard of living than ourselves.

I leave you with the latest round of Ron Paul spanking Helicopter Ben...again! Stagflation is an "unlikely scenario"...yeah, right Ben...

Theme for the Day

2009-04-29T06:18:00.000-07:00

That's pretty much my opinion on this market. It's just too high, considering the dismal GDP number (-6.1 %)...and that's of course the jiggered, massaged and homogenized number :)

Here is the tune I'm transcribing today:

I really like the Paris Combo because while the "vibe" is retro, the lyrics are contemporary and interesting. I can see myself sipping a cafe creme and listening to something like this:

And while we're in the genre, here's one of favorite Django Reinhart tunes:

And here's a classic Buster Keaton short for which I'm playing this Friday Morning over at Edgar Middle School in Metuchen, NJ

My favorite Birthday card

2009-04-26T20:02:00.000-07:00

Try JibJab Sendables® eCards today!

Apology

2009-04-23T07:01:00.000-07:00

I've very bad about this blog lately, for one major reason and a couple minor reasons.

1. I've been twittering quite a lot lately, and that's been using most of my "blogginess energy".

2. I think the markets are boring and gross as warmed over spit.

I'm tired of all the government intervention into free markets, and CNBC talking nothing but rumors and pep talks for hours on end.

I think the game of investing today is largely rigged...but I still think it's possible to make money if one just turns off the tube and watches price and volume.

What I said last week I still believe is the overall theme still holds:

Here's the last three weeks of the SPY (S&P 500)...just choppy choppy ugliness:

As a trader, I really hate this kind of market because it is essentially trendless.

But then again, that would be another data point supporting the notion that we are nearing a significant market top.

So a quick recap of where I think we are in the this cycle:

Equities: toppy, but not quite broken

Bonds: yields moving UP

And gold

BORING

2009-04-16T09:32:00.001-07:00

I'm seriously thinking about not talking about the markets anymore.

As I survey the financial blogosphere and major media, it once again dawns on me that no one actually knows what's going to happen, but that doesn't stop all the predicting and jaw flapping.It's all bullshit, and I'd rather practice, or (heaven forbid) clean up around here and go outside to pull some weeds.

But, here's what's going on. It's a stupid chop and flop festival, in which both bulls and bears are unhappy:

The Master

2009-04-14T11:38:00.000-07:00

Some pianists make me want to practice, but Oscar Peterson makes me just ball up and cry.

The beginning of the End

2009-04-14T11:15:00.001-07:00

And I can't get a decent gig...

2009-04-14T11:09:00.000-07:00

I'm just sayin'

Bailout Bonds?

2009-04-10T09:08:00.000-07:00

What MORONS. These are supposed to be progressive economic ideas???

Up and Up

2009-04-09T09:40:00.000-07:00

Well, here I am, Mr. Bear. I probed a bit on the short side (via TWM) on Tuesday, and got stopped out this morning.

So I give up, and I bought a small position in UWM (ultra long Russell) because a trend is a trend is a trend, albeit one that I think is unsustainable.

But the magic pixie dust that got spread around yesterday is still working, and I think it's a safe bet that this rally will once again probe the recent highs and even push through a bit:

So the Fed-driven reflation trade is alive and well, but let me draw attention to the exceptions to this little mini-bubble:

Utilities are underperforming:

Most interesting for me is what happened to the EUR/USD cross around 10 am EST:

It got creamed

Now, that flies in the face of the reflation trade...a stronger dollar does not make the Fed happy (but it makes me happy)

While we're on the subject, how's the Fed support of the long end of the yield curve? In a word, not very well!

So while the major indexes' rally is still intact, I believe there are things going on under the surface that indicate to me that the weaker hands are running the show now, and that a "real" test of the lows has yet to happen.

Magical Fairy Pixie Dust

2009-04-08T07:24:00.000-07:00

Before I went to bed, I checked the futures plus dollar and commodity action in general, and it looked really bad for the bulls.

But when I wake up, I see that our government has been busy spreading pixie dust, i.e. extending the TALP (which of course, stands for Taxpayers Again Left Penniless) fund to insurance companies.

Then, like magic, futures shot higher, like a drug addict hearing of the prospect of another fix. The US dollar dropped, commodities stabilized. A miracle.

We we'll see it's a miracle, or yet another dirty deal done dirt cheap via our syncophantic, slobbering financial media.

1819: America's First Housing Bubble

2009-04-07T07:22:00.000-07:00

Think this crisis is new? Well it ain't, and the causes ain't, either.

Read and learn

Calculating Green

2009-04-07T04:48:00.000-07:00

Stupid is as stupid does I suppose.

Buy Gold part deux

2009-04-07T04:39:00.001-07:00

I realize to the casual observer, last week's post "Buy Gold" seems pretty silly since for the moment, gold has topped out, and yes, I absolutely agree that the path of least resistance is down for now.

But my observation was from the vantage point of a very long term chart (monthly).

Here's a weekly:

Daily, which looks even more bearish to me:

The moral? I think gold could get down into the 700's, but at that point I believe it will be worth buying.

Patience

2009-04-07T04:27:00.000-07:00

is the technical trader's #1 asset IMHO, and especially right now.

The psychology of this market is such that once a bear market bounce reaches about 20%, money on the sideline gets itchy and just jumps in because they do not want to miss any more of the "big rally". At this point the professionals are more than happy to sell their holdings to these folks...and the market tops because the buying power of the market just goes away.

Now I'm not saying the uptrend off of the lows is broken. I'm saying there's a distinct possibility of the beginnings of a trend break and an extension of the cracks in the rally that began to show up last week.

Junkets, Boondoggles, and Faith

2009-04-04T11:29:00.000-07:00

from Gary North's blog...click here

Unconvinced

2009-04-03T09:16:00.000-07:00

OK, we got the big rally yesterday on G20 and mark to market rule changes, blah blah blah, and then I posted about my bearish ideas not working out yada yada yada.

But I'm really underwhelmed with this rally, such as it is. Firstly, it feels way too "easy". Now I'm willing to admit that this may simply my bearish bias, such as it is.

But look at this daily chart of the S&P500. I see tons and tons of overhead supply.

Also NB the very impressive resistance of the 880 area.

Also please note that the financials are beginning to under perform again.

So even though I missed a nice rally off of the lows (darn me)I just don't see much oomph to the upside any more, aside from these incessent pops due to government intervention, which I find, frankly, offensive.

And we are still very seriously OVERBOUGHT:

So feel free to draw your own conclusions, but I'm hardly giddy over the upside potential of this market.

Buy Gold

2009-04-02T10:00:00.000-07:00

This is a big change for me.

Here's the fundamental reason.

Here's the long term technical reason.

Here's a ten year MONTHLY chart of the gold/siver index:

BELIEVE ME- I say this with a HEAVY HEART, because I'm saying:

1. folks on fixed incomes are going to get SQUEEZED

2. Interest rates are headed UP.

3. the US dollar most likely will be TRASHED further.

Thanks Congress...thanks Obama administration...

Rall. Ee.

2009-04-02T09:23:00.000-07:00

I won't mince words. The rally has entered it's second leg of bull-dum this morning, so all my musings about looking for bearish entries are now mute.

And that applies across the board: USD is getting trashed, commodities are rallying, and the reflation trade in equities is in full flower again.

For me it sucks, because I was working this morning so I missed the good entries today. I will have to wait for pullbacks before I can participate in this most recent travesty upon our currency.

How about a little song?

Blow your mind

2009-04-02T09:09:00.000-07:00

The Grand Illusion

2009-04-01T10:03:00.000-07:00

Really great article about the Federal Reserve

Doomed, I tell you, Doomed

2009-04-01T08:34:00.000-07:00

Please, for your own financial well being, ignore CNBC today, where the pundits are crowing about the resilience of the market. I believe we are entering a lovely low risk short entry very soon.

How to Be a Leading Twit

2009-03-31T23:36:00.000-07:00

Here

Happy Bullish People

2009-03-31T12:32:00.000-07:00

Last Day of the Month? check.

Awful housing data? check.

Yet we rally!

Is there an internal logic to this? I think so:

From a Bali Beach

2009-03-30T05:51:00.000-07:00

Stephen Fry (yes, that Stephen Fry)

just took this lovely picture from Bali, and I'd like to share it with y'all.

Really lovely and ever so slightly surrealistic.

Last Man Standing

2009-03-27T07:44:00.000-07:00

Here's an hourly chart of the QQQQ, showing this really impressive rally off of multi-year lows:

I was listening to my guru, Gary Kaltbaum, and even *he* is starting to get bullish, upon which I just turned off the podcast (maybe there was a little sense at the end of the broadcast which I didn't catch...but meh)

Am I the last bearish guy now?

There's still some bearish mojo in the works. The Euro and the Pound got TRASHED at 3 am EST. Luckily I went short yesterday.

Dollar strength does not bode well for the Fed's reflation efforts.

Oil is looking very toppy:

In spite of Bernanke's plans to the contrary, the 10-year Treasuries hardly look this they're ready to blast to new highs:

So my take? Equity prices are prone to getting ahead of themselves, because they're bid up/down by fear/greed driven morons. For the me the most telling gauge of this rally strength is watching bonds, watching the US dollar, and watching commodities.

If the dollar rallies and commodities start to turn down meaningfully, that means the Fed driven reflation is failing and all the happy bullish people need to watch their collective buttocks.

Looking Toppy

2009-03-26T09:09:00.000-07:00

I've no idea where this is leading but just a quick note about the S&P 500

Also worth noting is that long bonds (expressed by TLT here) continue to struggle

Oh hell...I've no idea what's happening with the EUR/USD

2009-03-26T07:11:00.000-07:00

We're blasting to the bottom of the channel...again...I'm really in the blender over this trade!

Oh, and sell the Dollar, buy the Euro...again...

2009-03-26T05:15:00.000-07:00

I believe today's the day (I'm saying this before the unemployment figures have come out too)

At least someone is getting spanked

2009-03-26T05:14:00.001-07:00

What Would Mises Say?

2009-03-25T20:10:00.000-07:00

Click here

And if you're too lazy to click a little link, here's a relevant excerpt:

From "crushliberism.com"

2009-03-25T20:08:00.000-07:00

Cracks in the Firmament

2009-03-25T06:51:00.000-07:00

Meanwhile

Sell the Euro. Buy the Dollar

2009-03-24T10:59:00.001-07:00

Never mind.

The little Euro rally gave way...looks like more downside and I was wrong...for now!

Sell the dollar. Buy the Euro

2009-03-24T10:20:00.000-07:00

Dull, dull, dull

2009-03-24T09:55:00.000-07:00

I haven't posted much lately because I'm just sitting in cash, waiting for

1. this rally off the bottom peters out, after which

2. I will see if we retest the lows (I think not)

3. I am looking into buying into some bulls funds...nothing fancy.

Patience is the watchword for now

Re: TLT (Ten Year Treasuries)

I'm thinking it is basing for another push upward, but ultimately I think this rally in bonds is doomed.

Let's break the Fed!

2009-03-20T08:37:00.000-07:00

I have been rather obsessed with this Fed defending treasuries story, and my mind harkened back to George Soros.

This is a excerpt from Soros' Wikipedia entry:

I think this demonstrates some important ideas:

1. Central banks are strong players, of course, but they can also be spectacularly wrong.

2. This in turn creates ENORMOUS OPPORTUNITIES for speculators with enough vision and guts.

This is approximately the opposite scenario: The Fed is actively trying to devalue the US dollar, lower long rates, and artificially inflate commodity prices.

Now this is really stupid for a whole raft of reasons: it assumes that everybody around the world is an idiot that will continue to buy US treasuries at any price, regardless of a rapidly deteriorating Fed balance sheet. This is obviously retarded Hugo Chavez type thinking, but when you get a unaccountable institution run by Keynesians gone wild this is the sort of insane stuff that is going to happen.

Anyway I am starting to think that there is money to be made here. I think every time the Fed starts printing money to buy treasuries, I want to be on the opposite side of that trade. I want to be on the side of common sense. I want to show my disdain for this reckless policy by hitting them where it truly may register: their wallets.

Here's a four year chart of TLT. It shows IMHO a spectacular long term top:

So damn the torpedoes, concerned citizen investors of America, let's get out there and buy TBT!

Obama says short US Treasuries

2009-03-18T19:44:00.000-07:00

This from the Mises.org site...here.

The worst investor in the whole world.

2009-03-18T19:33:00.000-07:00

This chart does not look nearly as bullish as I thought it would look! I have a feeling that this government lead bond rally will be a TARGET of bond vigilantes and BILLIONS UPON BILLIONS OF TAXPAYER MONEY WILL VANISH WITH NEGLIGIBLE IMPACT ON THE LONG TERM MARKET.

This is a CRIME AGAINST THE AMERICA TAXPAYER, BOTH NOW AND FUTURE!

If you're not mad as hell, you don't understand what's going on!

The/A Bottom (aka Spring Cleaning)

2009-03-14T13:08:00.000-07:00

I think we're seeing the beginnings of a decent Spring rally.

The birds are singing, temps are warming up and the bears are taking break to count their money.

I'm looking for some weakness next week to buy.

Bonds and Commodities

2009-03-11T08:39:00.000-07:00

I think I was wrong to anticipate another bull leg for TLT. It seems to me that the attempted rally (i.e. declining rates) is pretty close to fizzling out.

Gold (GLD) is still working out a topping pattern, but think it could still make a run at $1000 again.

The EUR/USD cross (which is near and dear to my heart) is just settling in to a narrow gently declining channel, and honestly I've no idea what that means...I'd like to see it decline to 1.20 and beyond, but 1.24 seems like a pretty solid floor at the moment:

I am 100% CASH for the moment, awaiting data on what kind of bounce stocks will be getting. I am still very bearish, looking for bear entries.

Boom

2009-03-10T07:16:00.000-07:00

And then the gods spoke:

I have gone flat after giving up some profits. But my 3 week trading campaign was an unqualified success, and I am satisfied.

If this rally peters out today, I might just wind up going short again, but I really think the bulls are going to rule for the next couple of days...they are overdue!

What....what???!!!

2009-03-10T06:12:00.000-07:00

Does this mean that they can give OUR BILLIONS BACK?????

How to Listen to Gary Kaltbaum

2009-03-05T09:19:00.000-08:00

I once again recommend listening to his radio show that aired last night.

The podcast is here.

I received some complaints about the amount of commercials and whatnot there is in the podcasts- which is true, but please bear in mind a few things:

1. Gary has a very successful fund that he runs, so he doesn't need to do a damn radio show. He does it because he wants to drum up business and he wants to help people. The commercials probably make it worth the effort.

2. The way I listen to the show is I download the linked file, then in media player I simple move through the commercials as best as I can.

On this file I'd fast forward to :45, then skip from around 13:00 to 18:00, then 23:15 to 28:00, etc etc...the commercial segments run about 5 mins apiece.

Keep it Simple

2009-03-05T09:13:00.000-08:00

1. If you're bullish on this market, I hope you just listened to me a little tiny bit and at least got some protection for your positions.

The tape remains BRUTAL:

2. I'm simply sticking to my bearish ETF positions. This morning I added to SDS, so the simple tally is TWM, SDS, and a little bit of SKF just for fun.

I'm having a fine day, thank you very much.

Seeing Through the Noise

2009-03-04T10:07:00.000-08:00

Yes, I watched some CNBC in spite of my better instincts this morning. Lots and lots of yap, yap, yap.

Here's the most important thing going on today:

The downtrend in the financials is INTENSIFYING. This is very bad, regardless how the overall market closes.

The S&P 500 since 1980

2009-03-02T09:00:00.000-08:00

TLT handle

2009-03-02T04:54:00.000-08:00

But on a positive note for folks such as myself that own US dollars, it looks as though the Dollar is doing ok.

Also worth noting is futures are sagging again this morning, ostensibly on the AIG news.

The Dow:

And the transports, which are a classic recession indicator:

Position-wise, the trend remains my friend as I sit with two positions: TWM and SDS.

That is all...

OOPSIE (AKA thanks a lot Barry)

2009-02-27T06:04:00.000-08:00

While we were sleeping (presumably), our brilliant leaders cooked up a way to nationalize Citipuke without actually "nationalizing" it, and here is what the market thinks as of 9:07 EST:

As Obama runs left as fast as he can under the pretext of a national emergency (gosh too bad he didn't spell that out in his two autobiographies) the health care stocks are in the process of resuming their crash.

Here's the healthcare spider IYH:

Oh, and did you hear that the government is taking over the student loan business? See what Sallie Mae shareholders think about that idea:

And on a personal note, HMO's are getting crushed this month, ostensibly on the idea that Medicare reimbursements are going down, and healthcare is headed for nationalization. Thanks Barry!!!

Here's Health Spring (HS)

(Bear) Flags of our forefathers

2009-02-26T11:09:00.000-08:00

The Mysterious Levitation

2009-02-26T04:34:00.000-08:00

Isn't funny how in the last few days of the month the market always finds a reason to rally? (I'm being facetious).

Well the bears are taking a few days off, and they deserve it because they've been doing the bulk of the work lately!

Position-wise, I went flat late in the day of the Tuesday rally, so I gave up a chunk of gains, but they were still very decent so I shouldn't complain.

Fascism

2009-02-21T11:22:00.000-08:00

is not too strong a word.

Capitalism is the Solution, Not the Cause

2009-02-21T04:38:00.000-08:00

Another one of my free market rants.

Public Opinion

2009-02-20T08:05:00.001-08:00

I Just don't Care so Much Today

2009-02-20T06:56:00.000-08:00

I'm going to PA for a bit, and I won't be paying attention. Yea me.

But things are unfolding about as I have foreseen.

But I would be remiss if I didn't point you to yet another magnificent Gary Kaltbaum rant from last nights' program.

EDIT 11:09 EST

Maybe I was a bit optimistic!

Go Rick Go

2009-02-19T10:14:00.001-08:00

There is one commentator worth listening to on CNBC.

Knockin' on Heaven's Door

2009-02-19T08:35:00.000-08:00

And this is for my fellow bears!

Buy TLT?

2009-02-18T11:06:00.000-08:00

I dunno, but it's looking mighty mighty bullish to me.

Could it be True?

2009-02-18T08:03:00.000-08:00

This gorgeous website?

This heavy resume?

What did he do??

Is this just typical Washington overreaction after they screw up, or did this guy actually do something?

Like Butta

2009-02-18T07:38:00.000-08:00

Now I'm not so naive to think that a sudden bounce is not possible and even probable, because we are currently deeply, deeply oversold.

BUT then again, the really significant moves tend to occur during overbought/oversold phases of market cycles. That's how "trends" happen.

More Quality Rant

2009-02-17T08:27:00.000-08:00

from Gary Kaltbaum.

Uh Oh

2009-02-17T06:17:00.000-08:00

But remember last time I posted the futures on here? The market opened down hideously and then proceeded to bounce for the next few days.

I shouldn't really say "uh oh" because I'm currently in bear funds, and by the look of things we may be setting up for another meaningful down leg in the overall market (so maybe I will get out of this whipsaw hell that I've been in over the past few months)

My overall take is today some major support levels will be breached, which overall means that this market has lost confidence in our government's ability to bail them out to their satisfaction.

The only game in town currently appears to be gold:

But I think gold is very vulnerable here, as the other deflation indicators are flashing impressively:

Plus YIELDS ARE RISING. This is DISASTER for the Fed.

OK? so my thoughts? Cash good; bear funds good.

Take Care

Upside down World

2009-02-13T06:51:00.000-08:00

Come with me, gentle souls, and let us look at the world through the eyes of a bear.

Here's a look at SDS, which is the double short S&P 500 ETF:

It seems to me that in the near term the bulls and bears are going to continue fighting along this market "Maginot Line"

In terms of my allocations, I'm now very bearish with tight-ish stops. My largest position is TWM (followed by SDS and SKF)

BTW I hate SKF because it has been ground zero for all the government intervention which always gives me a headache. But I persist, which may be a character flaw in the final analysis.

Today's Drinking Game

2009-02-11T09:41:00.000-08:00

Turn on today's hearings.

Every time someone says "money is fungible," BOTTOMS UP.

Thought for the Day

2009-02-11T08:57:00.001-08:00

Oh, and this is for the bank executives testifying on capital hill right now:

or maybe this?

The Gold Flu

2009-02-11T08:53:00.000-08:00

I don't get gold bugs. Yes, sure, the world is going to end eventually but

1. I wouldn't bet on it all the time.

2. If the world does end, we should get plenty of (technical) notice.

The Myth of the Laissez-Faire Bush Years

2009-02-10T20:36:00.000-08:00

Read it and learn.

Wants vs. Gets

2009-02-10T08:20:00.001-08:00

What did the market want (and plan for)?: the savior announcing he would save the banking system.

What is the market getting?: A hackneyed political speech filled with Hugo Chavez-esque new measures.

Don't look at me; I didn't vote for 'em!

Banks Rescue Will 'Make Things Worse': Rogers

Mood for the Day

2009-02-10T07:00:00.000-08:00

We're fucked

Margaret Thatcher Was Right

2009-02-09T20:23:00.000-08:00

Another great column from Gary Kaltbaum here.

The weak antelopes

2009-02-09T20:08:00.000-08:00

I'll make this short because I'm tired.

The Nasdaq 100 is just about the strongest area of the market.

BUT this sector is a popular place to FAST MONEY to park money in an effort to be flexible, not necessarily bullish.

But Smallcaps have been rallying very weakly, and I believe the double short Russell ETF TWM is worth a shot very soon.

Plus I think the rally in financials is about done.

And I think Gold is about done here

And I think the EUR/USD is cooked as well:

Is Bill Gross an Idiot or a Businessman?

2009-02-06T05:28:00.000-08:00

If anyone can just write off hyperinflation as a better result than deflation is either stupider than dirt, or maybe they see the opportunity to make a buck or two:

Something Wicked This Way Comes

2009-02-04T20:01:00.000-08:00

I reversed and went long yesterday. And my intuition was rewarded at the open by a pretty nice rally.

But our boys, the bulls, just couldn't keep it up. This is ominous if/when it continues.

Buying

2009-02-03T11:45:00.000-08:00

Here's a quick chart.

I just sold all short ETF's and bought QLD and UWM. I believe the short term market direction will be bullish.

A Little Bill Evans

2009-02-02T11:39:00.000-08:00

God, I wish I could play like that.

Uh Oh

2009-02-02T04:30:00.001-08:00

I'm addressing this to those friends and family that think the worst of this market is behind us: the fact is, by looking at trending type indicators, I have absolutely no indication that we are at a bottom here and in fact we seem to be deteriorating anew here in February 2009.

We broke Dow 8000 last Friday and now we are drifting lower. I would not be surprised to visit November's reaction low of 7500 in the near future.

Close

2009-01-31T04:39:00.000-08:00

And Mom-

Burlington Northern resuming major downtrend!

PROCTER AND GAMBLE!

WALMART!

In fact the entire Dow Jones 30 appear to be just about the weakest of the three averages...beware!!

Color me Cynical

2009-01-28T05:16:00.000-08:00

OK, OK, so the markets are gapping up this morning because Big Daddy is coming to the rescue (wait, didn't they come to the rescue before last fall's historic drop?)(and didn't they come to the rescue before that?)(and didn't they come to the rescue before that?)

Let me figure this out. Let's say the worldwide toxic sludge ball is around 10 TRILLION...and that's conservative. So who's going to print that money to put all that into a "bad bank"??? Who??

Savior Obama is going to print about 800 billion to stimulate the economy through all manner of porkbarrel spending (power lines to making the world safe for contraceptives) and no one figures that this is a poor use for the printing press??

I feel like I'm taking crazy pills!!!

P*ss on a Hot Rock

2009-01-27T08:30:00.000-08:00

Thin, thin, thin!!

And irritating to folks such as myself who just want to damn thing to break already.

Declining volume chop and flop...my least favorite stuff trading-wise.

Bridge to nowhere

2009-01-25T05:28:00.000-08:00

I should have known better than to be excited at a gap down opening before I left on Friday.

So if that's my thesis I think the play here is simply to use any rally (esp to the top of the recent range) to add to short positions

PS...I managed to SKI a little, and I didn't break my ass. A proud moment in my recovery.

Let it Ride

2009-01-23T06:15:00.000-08:00

I am perfectly satisfied with all my positions going into this morning's opening bell.

So I'm going to not follow the market until tomorrow when I will try to say something else clever, but for now suffice it to say that the type of action I have been anticipating for several weeks looks like it is coming to fruition, and may be intensifying going into next week.

In short, it's good to be bearish, and not so hot to be bullish! A simple tale to tell:

And the futures put us right down at the pivot low:

Plus we're entering the Year of the Ox. The previous Ox trading year was 1997, which was a fun year for Jim Cramer I seem to remember.

I'm going to PA to do something sorta stupid. I messed myself up last year in a skiing accident (broken back, broken ribs, screwed up shoulder, out of work for two months...) but I might try strapping on some skis and try the easy greens for a bit, if only to get "back on the horse".

Wish me luck!