PS these charts are HUGE, so if you want to see them you need to double click on them; if I shrunk them it would be just about impossible to make anything out, so click please!
And here's Ron:
"
Look at the weekly charts of the 1929-31 timeframe compared to 2008-09. The
main difference is that 29-31 had its crash to reach the 200 wk moving
average and we had our crash after we lost touch with the 200 wk average and
headed south. If the next year continues as
31-32 went, our projected bottom will be 2373,which coincidentaly is where
the 1990 Dow bear hit and held its 200 wk average. Point 6 on the charts is
simply this week. In 1931 the market was down 64% while today we are down
only 43% due to our post crash short covering rally.
The first week of March those numbers were 29-31 down 53.5% while
2008-09 was down 54%. Until then these two bear markets were nearly
identical in length and severity. Thought you might find this interesting.
The question is, of course, what takes place in the next year? I think the
comparrison of these two charts pretty well makes the case that we are 2/3
of the way through this bear market and much further into depression than
most believe us to be.
On both charts the numbers mark these moments:
1. Market high
2. First leg down to 200 wk moving average
3. Rally back to 50 wk Moving Average
4. Close below 200 wk Moving Average.
5. The final drop away from the 200 wk Moving Average
6. 44 weeks after #5....Today"
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