Here's a daily chart of SPY. (I'm not home right now, so I can't Jing-ize any charts at this moment, but I think we can get a general sense of meaning just as well this way)
A couple of points I'd like to quickly note:
1. Volume has been abysmal lately; but today's rally was extra super duper abysmal. I would venture that today's rally was largely short covering. The bears are throwing in the towel, but I really don't sense a lot of institutional bullishness, either. Until some volume kicks in on one side or the other, I'd look cynically at any move the market makes.
2. This current action strikes me as, well, oddly logical. Everybody and their dog has been looking at the head and shoulders formation thinking "this is it". Then we got a lopsided trade which was easy to exploit on the flimsiest type of good news. That is why I bailed on TWM and QID two days ago, and got stopped out of DUG at yesterday's open: this was EASY TO SEE if one is flexible and/or cynical as I am.
3. I'm certain that the Cramers of the world are going to use these low volume breakouts as an excuse to signal "all clear", thereby encouraging more meat to the slaughter house that is Wall Street. Intel in particular has a long history of sandbagging their earnings (as well as most other large cap tech companies, but Intel has been particularily egregious about it over the last ten years or so), causing dramatic gapping breakouts that suck people in before collapsing again. I expect this to be about the same.
So again, if anybody out there is listening to me a bit, I am saying "BE CAREFUL OUT THERE" These people on the TV WANT YOU TO PUT YOUR MONEY BACK INTO THIS MARKET.
Thus endith the sermon.
A couple of points I'd like to quickly note:
1. Volume has been abysmal lately; but today's rally was extra super duper abysmal. I would venture that today's rally was largely short covering. The bears are throwing in the towel, but I really don't sense a lot of institutional bullishness, either. Until some volume kicks in on one side or the other, I'd look cynically at any move the market makes.
2. This current action strikes me as, well, oddly logical. Everybody and their dog has been looking at the head and shoulders formation thinking "this is it". Then we got a lopsided trade which was easy to exploit on the flimsiest type of good news. That is why I bailed on TWM and QID two days ago, and got stopped out of DUG at yesterday's open: this was EASY TO SEE if one is flexible and/or cynical as I am.
3. I'm certain that the Cramers of the world are going to use these low volume breakouts as an excuse to signal "all clear", thereby encouraging more meat to the slaughter house that is Wall Street. Intel in particular has a long history of sandbagging their earnings (as well as most other large cap tech companies, but Intel has been particularily egregious about it over the last ten years or so), causing dramatic gapping breakouts that suck people in before collapsing again. I expect this to be about the same.
So again, if anybody out there is listening to me a bit, I am saying "BE CAREFUL OUT THERE" These people on the TV WANT YOU TO PUT YOUR MONEY BACK INTO THIS MARKET.
Thus endith the sermon.
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