I swear this rally that has been spinning upwards for the better part of a month feels to me like some wacky manipulated fantasy world that is getting harder and harder to take for hard bitten chart watchers such as myself. It's like the averages are being run by a small band of banditos while the rest of us just sit on our hands waiting for the fever to subside.
Now of course the pure technical trader part of me realizes this is a significant rally (that I, of course, missed) and if I'm a bear I've got a target on my head: I will be shown the light by hook or by crook.
But it feels rigged. Bad news is good news, and horrible news "could have been worse".
This morning's action with the EUR/USD cross is case in point. Things were breaking down very nicely overnight until someone/something/some institution decided that the US dollar was getting too strong and bought lots of Euros.
US futures were breaking down, too, until "something" happened and now everything is all better.
And don't get me started on oil. Demand at multi year lows?? Storage at multi year highs? No problem!
What's laughable in all this is we've witnessed a historic expansion of our money supply, while academic boneheads/aka state apologists like Benjamin Bernanke say blather like "inflation is contained" while oil shoots up like a rocket and the US dollar shudders like a doughboy trapped in a foxhole. These people may or may not be intelligent, but they are also idiots. They are part and parcel of the government's plan to inflate commodities, inflate the equity markets, and kill the Dollar...and you know, after several trillion of funny money gets dumped into the system, it seems to be working...FOR NOW! But I think it's morally wrong to "stimulate" an overpriced market through monetary and government expansion, because it hurts savings, hurts seniors, and moreover dooms our children to a lower standard of living than ourselves.
I leave you with the latest round of Ron Paul spanking Helicopter Ben...again! Stagflation is an "unlikely scenario"...yeah, right Ben...
2 comments:
Cool site you have here. I often wondered what happened to you and am surprised to see you sat this rally out. Really surprised. The armageddon crowd has polluted many and that makes them no different than Cramer ;-) Everything in time.
--dowoper8tr--
Thanks for coming by!
I gave up on the SOH because it felt to me like it was turning into one of those message boards where the quality of the comments was going downhill, especially after the more intelligent critics started getting banned...
Basically if you want to run a board as a monument to your trading genius, well that's not very interesting to me.
My interest is in system development and concurrently in simplifying these systems to the bare minimum of moving parts. Therefore is have embraced the simple yet effective notion of trading in the direction of moving averages.
Unfortunately this notion puts me at odds with Tim, who seems to take delight in trying to do just the opposite...to me this is far more exciting, because it is in fact gambling.
This approach puzzles me because it seems rather muddled. Are you daytrading? Then hopping in/out of positions seems ok, provided you know what you're doing, or have some sort of discipline going on.
But he seems to run long term positions and then try to daytrade the averages while anticipating turning points with both.
Now I know I'm not that smart, because a) I've no idea where the turns will be and b)no way could I run all those positions and do justice to them all.
But it seems anyone who dares say that on his board becomes public enemy #1...I think this is a very silly way to behave.
I'm not interested in the thrill of the chase or various sycophantics telling me "you're a genius" ; I want to make money consistently as possible.
Anyway take care
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