Friday, April 3, 2009

Unconvinced

OK, we got the big rally yesterday on G20 and mark to market rule changes, blah blah blah, and then I posted about my bearish ideas not working out yada yada yada.

But I'm really underwhelmed with this rally, such as it is. Firstly, it feels way too "easy". Now I'm willing to admit that this may simply my bearish bias, such as it is.

But look at this daily chart of the S&P500. I see tons and tons of overhead supply.



Also NB the very impressive resistance of the 880 area.

Also please note that the financials are beginning to under perform again.



So even though I missed a nice rally off of the lows (darn me)I just don't see much oomph to the upside any more, aside from these incessent pops due to government intervention, which I find, frankly, offensive.

And we are still very seriously OVERBOUGHT:



So feel free to draw your own conclusions, but I'm hardly giddy over the upside potential of this market.

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