Terrible NFP: Recession = mkt UP - or - Deflation = mkt DOWN?
NFP is released the first FRIday of each month for the preceding month. OCT's -240K was released NOV 7. http://tinyurl.com/5fefhl The terrible number was seen as devaluing the $USD causing our market to spike. http://tinyurl.com/63sjal
FRI's NOV NFP is guesstimated to be whopper - 300K! Now, within a normal recessionary environment, as we observed NOV 7, "Bad News" is good for the market as it devalues the $USD. However, in an abnormal deflationary environment "Bad News" will be interpreted as doom & gloom, casting despair far & wide sending the market down, maybe even along with the $USD.
Think of deflation as being polar opposite of an inflationary environment where "Good News" is good for the $USD & the market. In a deflationary environment "Bad News" should be interpreted as being bad for the market.
QUESTION: On FRIday will the market respond to a whopping NFP with a recessionary or deflationary vantage point? Recession = mkt UP - or - Deflation = mkt DOWN
Terrible NFP: Recession = mkt UP - or - Deflation = mkt DOWN?
NFP is released the first FRIday of each month for the preceding month. OCT's -240K was released NOV 7. http://tinyurl.com/5fefhl The terrible number was seen as devaluing the $USD causing our market to spike. http://tinyurl.com/63sjal
FRI's NOV NFP is guesstimated to be whopper - 300K! Now, within a normal recessionary environment, as we observed NOV 7, "Bad News" is good for the market as it devalues the $USD. However, in an abnormal deflationary environment "Bad News" will be interpreted as doom & gloom, casting despair far & wide sending the market down, maybe even along with the $USD.
Think of deflation as being polar opposite of an inflationary environment where "Good News" is good for the $USD & the market. In a deflationary environment "Bad News" should be interpreted as being bad for the market.
QUESTION: On FRIday will the market respond to a whopping NFP with a recessionary or deflationary vantage point? Recession = mkt UP - or - Deflation = mkt DOWN
My opinion Fuzz is that deflation fears (and deflation in reality) will ultimately drive the market down.
My worry though is at some point the amazing increase in money supply could result in inflationary pressures, but for now all this new money is going under mattresses and it looks very deflationary to moi.
3 comments:
Terrible NFP: Recession = mkt UP - or - Deflation = mkt DOWN?
NFP is released the first FRIday of each month for the preceding month.
OCT's -240K was released NOV 7.
http://tinyurl.com/5fefhl
The terrible number was seen as devaluing the $USD causing our market to spike.
http://tinyurl.com/63sjal
FRI's NOV NFP is guesstimated to be whopper - 300K!
Now, within a normal recessionary environment, as we observed NOV 7, "Bad News" is good for the market as it devalues the $USD.
However, in an abnormal deflationary environment "Bad News" will be interpreted as doom & gloom, casting despair far & wide sending the market down, maybe even along with the $USD.
Think of deflation as being polar opposite of an inflationary environment where "Good News" is good for the $USD & the market.
In a deflationary environment "Bad News" should be interpreted as being bad for the market.
QUESTION: On FRIday will the market respond to a whopping NFP with a recessionary or deflationary vantage point?
Recession = mkt UP - or - Deflation = mkt
DOWN
Terrible NFP: Recession = mkt UP - or - Deflation = mkt DOWN?
NFP is released the first FRIday of each month for the preceding month.
OCT's -240K was released NOV 7.
http://tinyurl.com/5fefhl
The terrible number was seen as devaluing the $USD causing our market to spike.
http://tinyurl.com/63sjal
FRI's NOV NFP is guesstimated to be whopper - 300K!
Now, within a normal recessionary environment, as we observed NOV 7, "Bad News" is good for the market as it devalues the $USD.
However, in an abnormal deflationary environment "Bad News" will be interpreted as doom & gloom, casting despair far & wide sending the market down, maybe even along with the $USD.
Think of deflation as being polar opposite of an inflationary environment where "Good News" is good for the $USD & the market.
In a deflationary environment "Bad News" should be interpreted as being bad for the market.
QUESTION: On FRIday will the market respond to a whopping NFP with a recessionary or deflationary vantage point?
Recession = mkt UP - or - Deflation = mkt DOWN
My opinion Fuzz is that deflation fears (and deflation in reality) will ultimately drive the market down.
My worry though is at some point the amazing increase in money supply could result in inflationary pressures, but for now all this new money is going under mattresses and it looks very deflationary to moi.
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