Greetings from the Old Country

No charts today; just some quick thoughts.

I'm not following the markets on an intra day basis, which is, I must say, very liberating.

The major averages both here and abroad have continued their distribution that commenced in earnest last week (after a false breakout that certainly fooled me!).

Big themes: 1. treasury market rollover is continuing- very weak action in SHY, AGG, and TLT. These means interest rates are going higher in the INTERMEDIATE term...not just short term...these are trends that look to me like they will continue.

2. 1.5374 pivot in the FXE (USD/EUR cross) is getting quite close, and I think it will be penetrated sooner rather than later.

3. So it looks like the USD could very well strengthen more than Japan and EU in the near term because rates are stabilizing and Europe is really beginning to slow down similar to what America has experienced. Perhaps eventually we could in the coming months witness a challenge to the 144 region of USD/EUR.

4. Commodities and commodity stocks have also entered distribution patterns (finally). They still are much stronger than the rest of the market and I would not be at all surprised to see OIH hit a new high in the near future. Gold looks as weak as the bond market, however. In the longer term I would expect USD strength to undercut commodities in general, but this simply hasn't shown up in many oil stock charts yet. For example, drillers like FST and SD are merely pausing after tremendous quasi-parabolic type action, but really they are holding up just fine. XLE in general stills looks buyable, if only for a trade.

5. Financials are oversold. I am waiting for a bounce in the coming months, after which I will probably enter a decent position in SKF...but that could be a late summer trade...we will see how things play out in reality, as opposed to my head!

That's all! I will be posting greek pics soon. Y'all keep your head down!