But there is stuff going on, market-wise, and I think I should go into it a bit. Also plenty of stuff going on non-market wise, with lots of family ailments, my struggling with getting older as a anonymous pianist, and why do I have gray hair in my beard with nothing much to show for it...
So in the intervening months since November: 1)We had a weak, weak December late month rally 2)The markets finally gave way below major moving averages in January. The Russell 2000 is officially in a bear market, having moved over 20% from peak to trough.
All this would be great for me. If I had simply stuck with my guns and stayed short during January. But I continually allow myself to get knocked out with volatility.
But on the good news front, I carried some positions in VLO and ESLR in December which I exited perfectly before the dramatic crash, and that was due to my system that I've been developing for years...and now I'm growing hopeful and ready to finally be profitable...finally. In fact I want to start managing money again, which I'll get into later.
Oh, the system: look at 30-min charts, look for action over the zero-line of the MACD, use MACD stops, filter entries using the daily slow stochastic readings, i.e. high readings would imply looking for short setups, while low reading vice versa. Sounds simple, it is simple, good systems are simple IMHO.
Also another lesson from November: parabolic entries/exits are CRAP. They go long at overbought places and they sell at oversold places. Never again.
Anyway, here's the daily SPY:
Now a close up of the rally:
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