Thursday, September 6, 2007

Floppin and Choppin

Today featured more low volume nothing type action.

I went pretty short yesterday and most of those trades are still profitable, despite the market moving against them most of the day.

However in the short term technically I'd call the QQQQ's, SPY, and IWM just about "neutral" meaning it looks like they could break either way. So dutifully I tighten my stops; if we break down I'm sitting pretty, or if we opening higher I'm probably going long and seeing where it goes.

That said- daily and weekly charts are very, very overbought so accordingly I have a bearish bias....but I must recognize that these are not free markets anymore. They are manipulated and wacky. Uncle Ben is up there in his helicopter dropping more dollar bills.

CNBC has a term they've been knocking around for a few weeks: "moral hazard", that is the moral ramifications of a policy that would once again bail out the brokers and bankers that created complex derivatives that, in the end, they didn't even fully understand, for problems that the Fed and the banking industry created themselves.

Here's a more simply question: at what point is the market going to lose faith in the power of the Fed to continue to levitate these markets? At what point will the little frail man be revealed from behind his curtain of massaged statistics and inept forecasts? First we had the "Greenspan put"...now the "Bernanke put"? How does interfering with free markets help anyone but the greedy bankers? How is buying worthless paper not inflationary? Does Bernanke really think he is smart enough to "manage" the US economy like this (or any economy)?

After all, bankers are not experiencing a credit crunch because there is a lack of liquidity per se...they just are reluctant to reprice assets at market levels because there will be hideous losses. It is not a problem of money, it is a problem of overpriced assets getting repriced and working their way through the system.

Or is the problem SO BAD that the soundness of the entire banking system threatened? If it's that bad...well oopsies...maybe the stock market has more repricing to do as well...

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