Wednesday, August 8, 2007

Worst case scenario

After blasting through the bottom of the range last week, now we have day #3 of pyschotic buying of all the major averages, taking out the top of the recent range... I've been stopped out of most of my shorts, which peeves me to no end, but what's done is done. I need to ready myself for the next phase. Positive thought: I have a ton of cash now!

These three days have knocked me down about 1.7%, which is not the end of the world, but it hurts anyway, because I didn't play very accurately or skillfully. Mistake #1 was cashing out the shorts last Friday. Instead I bought back into my bear funds at the worst possible time when the market was extremely oversold. I was too smart for my own good.

However after my mea culpa maxima, and the nutty noisy rally the SPY is ONLY BACK TO IT"S 20-DAY EMA. I believe there is a short term shorting opportunity, followed by a possible basing period/soft rallly until the end of summer.

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