Thursday, August 9, 2007

Despite all, still in bear mode

Day three of market psychosis (The Dow went up 85 points in the LAST MINUTE of the trading day yesterday) and now the daily charts show a definitely overbought condition.

Most of the averages are just under the 50-day EMA (poking above the 20-day). The last three days were very very dramatic and very noisy, but the fact remains that I can't get bullish until the lows are challenged again, so playing it by the book I have dutifully set up buy stops on my bear funds (yeah the ones that have smacked me down this week). I've use support/resistance from 15-min charts to hopefully get better buy points, but not much better since the volatility was so insane yet again yesterday.

Yes it's been dramatic and a good 3 day run for the bulls, but again: a three day run right into the 50-day is a textbook place to short the market, not buy it! Besides the craziness of the run should make the permabulls at least a little bit nervous: it was mostly short covering (and I helped with that unfortunately)...the question now is less folks are selling today, but is anyone actually going to buy?

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