Tuesday, June 5, 2007

Opportunity in Working Clothes

Finally getting some distribution. No cause to panic in most cases; in fact overall I'm treating this as a buying opportunity.

But a few areas looking weak:

1. TLT continues to crater...the long end of the yield curve is coming up. Chances of a rate cut are beginning to get priced out, which could be good news for the US Dollar in the future.

2. BUT for now (as of last fri) the EUR/USD short is finished. We have an upward biase in place for the time being, and I'd imagine another shot at the highs, although who knows if we get there.

3. The bad stocks that I've been talking about: SBUX, SHLD,C, etc. are getting worse and are fully shortable now IMHO, especially if they get nice and bounce a bit for us, giving me better entries.

My strategy: I intend to weed out weak stocks if we start getting another round of distribution. But so far the major averages are holding up beautifully.

I will let you know if it looks like this is more than a little distribution. Then I will get back to talking defense.

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