Dollar Deathmarch

Here is a MONTHLY chart of the EUR/USD since 1999:

I remember saying something in the early 2000's (I don't remember the exact time anymore) that if I had any brains at all I would take everything I had and bought Euros. Of course I didn't do it, being no George Soros.

Anyway in 2005 the EUR/USD topped out at 1.3665. And here we are once again chugging towards a retest of the very same levels! Coincidence? I think not. Currency strategists and traders are notoriously technical people. They see the top as a target. Heck, if I were still trading currencies, I'd see the top as a target. It's full speed ahead for the time being. The US dollar is once again the world's favorite punching bag. Hurray, except for some of us that are living in Europe on US dollars...then it's not a great thing. It puzzles me why the ECB would allow it to happen to be honest, because it can only puts the brakes on an already sluggish European socialist economy. But it is not for me to wonder why.

But this long term pattern is looking suspiciously like a double top forming. Of course that's a long term idea, and of course the traders will most probably take out the highs on the next bit of weak US economic data, because that's the game that they play.

But I'd carefully watch the moving averages over the next couple weeks for signs of a climax run, then I'd seriously think about buying the US dollar.